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Informational Only

This challenge is no longer accepting new submissions.

Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge

Can you create a method to predict future geopolitical outcomes that is better than current state-of-the-art methods?

Office of Director of National Intelligence - Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity

Total Cash Prizes Offered: $200,000
Type of Challenge: Scientific
Submission Start: 03/07/2018 12:00 AM ET
Submission End: 09/07/2018 02:00 PM ET

This challenge is externally hosted.

You can view the challenge details here:


Decision makers rely on the Intelligence Community to provide accurate and relevant forecasts, and IARPA is working to identify methods to maximize the quality of these forecasts. IARPA’s Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge invites individuals or teams to develop innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowdsourced forecasts and other data into accurate, timely forecasts of geopolitical events. Solvers will be competing against each other and in parallel with a similarly structured research program funded by IARPA. Overall, IARPA is seeking novel approaches that can help further current methodologies and improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. Over the course of seven months, the GF Challenge solvers will be asked to produce forecasts to a series of questions like:
  • Who will win the upcoming presidential election in Egypt?
  • What will the spot price of Brent Crude oil be on [date]?
In order to answer these questions, solvers will be given access to a continuously updated stream of forecast judgments produced by a crowd of human forecasters and will be allowed to use other data sources to produce their solutions. The challenge presents an opportunity for individuals and teams to earn prizes by creating methods that successfully forecast a wide variety of geopolitical events, such as political elections, international conflict, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators.


1st Place
Cash Prize Amount: $20000

2nd Place
Cash Prize Amount: $15000

3rd Place
Cash Prize Amount: $10000

4th Place
Cash Prize Amount: $7000

5th Place
Cash Prize Amount: $4000

Domain / Region Pairing
Cash Prize Amount: $25000
5 Prizes @ $5k each for best in Domain / Region pairing

Best Undergraduate
Cash Prize Amount: $4000
Best performance by an undergraduate who is not in the top five

Milestone Performance
Cash Prize Amount: $30000
Best performance during the milestone periods, there are three of these throughout the challenge. Prize will be split among those who meet minimum thresholds for each of the milestone periods.

Interim Prizes
Cash Prize Amount: $15000
Prizes will be awarded for unique opportunities to be defined throughout the course of the challenge

Ultimate Predictor - Bonus
Cash Prize Amount: $40000
Bonus awarded to the first place finisher if they also beat the top HFC score and beat the baseline