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Rodeo II - Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting

Closing the Gap on Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting.

Type of Challenge: Analytics, visualizations and algorithms
Partner Agencies | Federal: NOAA - National Integrated Drought Information System
Submission Start: 06/27/2019 11:00 AM ET
Submission End: 10/01/2020 12:00 AM ET

Description

Water managers need more skillful information on weather and climate conditions to help efficiently utilize water resources to reduce the impact of hydrologic variations.  Examples of hydrologic variations include the onset of drought or a wet weather extreme. Lacking skillful sub-seasonal information limits water managers’ ability to prepare for shifts in hydrologic regimes and can pose major threats to their ability to manage the valuable resource.

The challenge of sub-seasonal forecasting encompasses the lead times of 15 to 45 days into the future, which lay between those of weather forecasting (i.e. up to 15 days, where initial ocean and atmospheric conditions matter most) and seasonal to longer-lead climate forecasting (i.e. beyond 45 days, where slowly varying earth system conditions matter most, such as sea surface temperatures, soil moisture, snow pack). 

The Rodeo II Challenge series will create algorithms to enhance sub-seasonal forecasting, reducing risks to our water systems, and helping water managers efficiently manage hydrological variations.

This challenge series will first have one traditional marathon match challenge to establish predictive algorithms on historical weather data, and then recurring data science challenges (sprints) over the next full year to refine those solutions on live weather data.

Key Dates

Pre-Registration:  June 27 to week of July 19, 2019

Marathon Match:  Week of July 19th to week of August 18th, 2019

Data Science Sprints:  Fall 2019 start to Fall 2020 with recurring sprints every two weeks over the full year.

Marathon Match Winners: Anticipate announcement late to early September 2019

Data Science Sprint Winners: Anticipate announcement of winners after each sprint, beginning in late Fall 2019

Data Science Full Year Winners: Anticipate announcement of winners at the end of the full year in late 2020 to possibly early 2021.

Rules

All contest details, including timeline, marathon match, and data sprint details can be found on the Topcoder Rodeo II website.

Prizes

This series will have more than $800,000 in prize money available over the next year.

Judging Criteria

Marathon Match:  Short term competition (over a 1-2 month period beginning in July) with solvers submitting a hind-cast over a set period of historic temperature and precipitation data.  Performance of submissions will be evaluated against historic data. 

Data Science Sprints:  Year-long competition following the Marathon Match with solvers submitting forecasts every two weeks.  Submissions will be scored against real-time forecasts at the 3-4 week and 5-6 week timeframes

How To Enter

All submissions must be made online through the Topcoder Rodeo II website.

Point of Contact

Have feedback or questions about this challenge? Send the challenge manager an email